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Economy: Update

My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for repeating yesterday’s Statement and to the entire Treasury team, Ministers and officials, for their continued work in response to coronavirus.

As the Chancellor said in his Statement, these are tough times. The Minister read out the number of new universal credit claimants, as well as the staggering figure of 4 million furloughed jobs. He also warned that things are likely to get worse before they get better. Even if the figures do not grow, they are clearly worrying in the economic context. We have seen the projections of the OBR, the statistics in relation to business confidence and the analysis of a variety of economists and think tanks. However, throughout all this we must remember that behind the numbers and statistics are real lives and hard struggles to keep households running and businesses afloat.

Yesterday, the shadow Chancellor asked what steps the Government are taking to convert initial universal credit loans into grants to ease the burden on new claimants. She noted that the issue appears to be with the IT system behind universal credit, rather than a lack of political will. In response, the Chancellor listed a number of benefit reforms introduced by the DWP. However, he failed to answer the particular point on the IT problem, so I hope the Minister can comment. For the avoidance of doubt, do the Government agree that initial universal credit loans should be converted into grants if the IT problems can be overcome? If the answer is yes, what is being done to solve those IT problems?

Turning to the wider economic response, we welcome the many measures announced thus far and have, I hope, played a constructive role on occasions such as these. My honourable friend the shadow Chancellor has had multiple meetings and exchanges of correspondence with the Chancellor; I hope she receives a speedy reply to the questions attached to her latest letter.

The announcement of so-called bounce-back loans, which will be 100% guaranteed by the Government, is a welcome step. We are grateful to the banks for getting the scheme up and running so quickly and hope it will ease some of the concerns and cash-flow issues of SMEs across the country.

Problems remain for those firms seeking more than £50,000 of support. Many will rightly question why they are not able to access funds as quickly or easily. I therefore hope that the Minister can offer assurances that the Government are looking at ways to make the main coronavirus business interruption loan scheme faster and less cumbersome. The long-term cost of not improving the system could be significant. That said, we appreciate the speed at which the Treasury has worked to formulate its response to Covid-19, and that the calls from SMEs, backed by the Labour Party, for swifter access to business loans have been heeded, at least in part.

While we accept that the initial government response had to be reactive, I hope the Minister can comment on what is being done to shift thinking towards a more proactive, whole-economy view, whereby sector-specific problems are identified earlier. It is vital that further coronavirus support schemes are designed and rolled out when they are of most use, rather than when the situation on the ground has become critical. Specifically, is cross-departmental work being undertaken to produce a whole-economy view? If the answer is yes, who is responsible? If the answer is no, why not?

One example of this concerns pubs and restaurants. These businesses play a vital role in communities across the country, both in the pleasure they bring and the employment they support. However, they face perhaps the greatest uncertainty of all. They are likely to be the last to reopen and, assuming social distancing remains in place for some time, their capacity, and therefore their earning potential, will be much reduced. This raises a number of questions.

The Minister will know that Section 82 of the Coronavirus Act 2020 affords increased protections for commercial tenants, in the event of their being unable to pay rent. However, these protections will lapse at the end of June unless extended by a negative SI. Will the Government be extending this provision and, if so, until when? He will know that the equivalent protections in Section 81 for residential tenants run until the end of September, offering greater certainty. Further, can the Minister confirm whether the Government are looking at what forms of additional support may be provided for such small businesses, even once they have reopened? If firms are having to operate differently because of government guidelines, they should surely not have to accrue debt as a result.

Finally, if the earning potential of pubs and restaurants is limited for an extended period, what protections can the Government put in place to ensure that landlords do not begin to seek other tenants, such as fast-food chains or takeaway restaurants, which are likely to be perceived as safer options? There are many other examples of where long-term, proactive thinking is required, so I hope the Minister will make himself available for further exchanges in the future.