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Armed Forces: Future Size

My Lords, I am not sure what the Secretary of State said but I can confirm that this is definitely a decision for the SDSR. It is my personal aspiration that we have a second carrier operating.

As the noble Lord said, an immediate risk is the collapse of the Syrian regime. We will continue to support our allies in the region and would like to see a diplomatic solution but we cannot afford to remove options from the table at this stage. Our current posture in the region supports UK interest in international efforts by securing globally important economical arteries, including the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring the well-being of regional partners and contributing to regional security.

The UK currently has one frigate, one destroyer, four mine hunters and two Royal Fleet Auxiliary support vessels deployed to the Gulf conducting maritime security operations. I can assure the House that the Government continue to keep the Middle East under constant review. We will adapt as required to meet any emerging threats wherever they may arise.

While responding—and being prepared to respond—in the Middle East, we have continued to make significant progress in Afghanistan. We have built the capability of the Afghan national security forces so that they can prevent Afghan territory from ever again being used as a safe haven by international terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. We have helped to underpin a more stable Government and have overseen elections. We have demonstrated the Armed Forces’ ability to act elsewhere, such as in the seas off Somalia, where we are working alongside navies from around the world to control the spread of piracy.

The noble Lord, Lord Empey, asked about nerve agents and chemical weapons. Happily, I can confirm that insurgents in Afghanistan have not used nerve agents or other chemical weapons against coalition forces. There have been a few cases in Iraq where improvised devices containing industrial chemicals and small quantities of chemical agent were detonated, but these did not result in any coalition fatalities. I can also assure the House that our Armed Forces are adequately equipped and trained to operate in an environment where these threats exist, both overseas and in the UK.

The noble Lord asked me to outline the Government’s policy on the replacement of the Trident system. It remains as set out in the SDSR. We will maintain a continuous submarine-based deterrent and will begin the work of replacing the existing submarines. Work on the assessment phase of the replacement submarine programme has been under way since May 2011. The final decision as to whether to proceed with the Main Gate investment decision for the replacement programme will take place in 2016, after the next election.

I can reassure my noble friend that the Armed Forces are not subject to overstretch. As we recover and recuperate from Afghanistan, our flexibility will be greatly enhanced. The SDSR set out plans to transform defence so that we emerge with a more coherent capability in the future, under what is known as Future Force 2020. This required tough decisions to scale back the overall size of the Armed Forces and

reduce some capabilities less critical to today’s requirements. The SDSR gave us the full structure of Future Force 2020 which, by the next decade, will enable us to deliver our adaptable strategic posture. It is based on our assessment of the forces required to meet our standing commitments, while conducting three overlapping operations: a simple, non-enduring intervention; a complex non-enduring intervention; and an enduring stabilisation operation.

The top defence priority remains success in Afghanistan. As we move towards Future Force 2020, the ability of our Armed Forces to respond to additional contingent tasking is kept under constant review by the Ministry of Defence. It is from this realistic capacity that additional commitments are delivered.

In response to the question of the noble Lord, Lord Empey, relating to the violence in Northern Ireland, first, I am sure that the House will join me in condemning the violent demonstrations that we have witnessed recently. We should recognise the outstanding efforts of the PSNI and the bravery demonstrated by police officers in maintaining law and order. I call on all political parties in Northern Ireland to engage in dialogue to resolve disputes peacefully. The violence witnessed does not represent the true face of Northern Ireland’s business and community sectors and wider society. Although military operations in Northern Ireland ceased in 2007, our Armed Forces continue to play an important role supporting the Police Service of Northern Ireland. I assure the noble Lord that this will continue.

My noble friend Lord Palmer asked how many generals we will have in an Army of 82,000 and in France. I cannot today give my noble friend a specific answer on the number of generals, but I assure him that, proportionally, there will be a greater decrease in major generals and above compared to brigadier and below.

My noble friend also asked about Iron Dome. The UK currently has no plans to develop or acquire national ballistic missile defence capability. However, each SDSR provides an opportunity to review this position against projected threats. Iron Dome is not a ballistic missile defence system, but is designed to provide relatively short-range protection again rockets and artillery shells. Its role is comparable to the maritime close-in weapons systems deployed by the UK in Operation Telic to protect UK forces in Basra.

I will respond to my noble friend on the issue of generals and the other questions that he asked.